Australia's higher education sector is already facing a decline in foreign students as the Coalition pledges to slash international student commencements to 240,000 per year, down from the government's 295,000 planning level. The policy includes capping the international student share below 25 per cent and abolishing the temporary graduate visa. Universities Australia chief executive Luke Sheehy said the moves would be extraordinarily challenging, with some institutions facing a very significant hole in budgets as international revenue fills gaps left by lagging public funding. Visa approvals have already fallen 25 per cent over three years to 195,607 in 2025-26. Modelling by the University of Sydney previously estimated a 30 per cent visa cut could cost the sector $1.1 billion.